Fall of Panjshir in Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s next move

Finally, Panjshir Valley has fallen to the Taliban and the remaining pockets of resistance have been sternly warned if anyone tries to “start an insurgency” they will be “hit hard”.

Even a novice student of warfare would understand that Amrullah Saleh and the emotional Ahmad Masood stood no chance against a well-coordinated assault on the valley, this time round.

Why Panjshir Valley was not captured before?

The only reason Panjshir valley was not conquered in the Taliban’s last stint of 1999 – 2001 and during the Soviet invasion in the 80s was that,

• Neighboring countries were not on board with the attackers then.
• All the access routes to the valley were not in the attackers’ control.
• The USA was backing Panjshir resistance fighters.
• Invaders could not use Panjshir Valley entry and exit gullies from the
  • Baghlan and Takhar Provinces in the North
  • Badakhshan and Nuristan to the East
  • Laghman and Kapisa in the South, and
  • Parwan in the west

Then, there is no point fighting troops that speak the same Dari Persian language as yourself and are Sunni like the Taliban.

The lightning speed with which the Taliban marched their troops into Panjshir Valley from “four” unfrequented routes is a masterpiece of War Art.

How Taliban managed to swiftly overrun Panjshir Valley

This bulleted list explains it all

• Cutting off Supply lines
• Using Unfrequented routes,
• light infantry,
• political negotiations,
• general amnesty,
• siege to starve the resupply,
• Invoking religious sentiments,
• fighting nodes of resistance,
• Targeting military leaders.
• Roping in Tajikistan

When the details of the Panjshir assault are finally declassified, this should be taught in military schools worldwide.

This was no ordinary takeover.

Brilliant Taliban Generals

No average Joe, military grunt, or Talib middle commander can coordinate multiple units simultaneously.

Some say Pakistani Generals were behind this – but no proof is offered.

Not a single Pakistani has been captured fighting alongside the Taliban and the Indian media had to stoop to blatant lies to justify their falsehood.

If Pakistani Generals were really behind this overrun of Afghanistan, then they are brilliant to say the least.

Pakistani Generals are exceptional

Hundreds of billions of dollars of impoverished Pakistan has been spending on the Army have been manifested in a spectacular display of warfighting mastery.

See, institutions working in their respective purview, under political leadership produce wonders.

I wish Pakistan could build political institutions like Pakistan Army too.

Panjshir Resistance stood no chance

After the Americans hastily left, like they always do – fickle as they are- Taliban swept up north instead of south and that was the first and decisive surprise.

Once the Taliban had all the border checkpoints secure, President Ashraf Ghani’s goose was cooked.

It took him two unnecessary months to realize that.

How the Taliban managed to keep supply lines intact so far up North for light combat operations without airpower is pure genius.

Pakistan is a clear winner in Afghanistan

Pakistan has managed to give the USA, India, and all the European high and mighty colonists a bloody nose and the greatest of humiliations.

There is no chance for these power-hungry countries to bully and destroy weak countries anymore.

There is a new kid in town – Pakistan to spoil their party.

In any case, the USA, with its huge deficits and pressure from China is about begging the world not to drop the US Dollar as reserve currency – the last vestige of power it possesses

Now that the USA’s influence is receding from the Muslim world, Pakistan must seek

• Dominion relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan with only foreign policy and defense mutual
• Seek a permanent seat in the UN as the sole democratic representative of the Muslim world with nuclear weapons.
• Redrawing borders with India
• The land route to Former East Pakistan
• Merger with Bangladesh
• Muslim despots immediately return to democracy and the rule of law.
• Decision-making right in Global institutions like IMF, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank.
• Access to Pakistani labor and goods to the Middle East and Western countries.
• Access to Western Technology.

Why did the Afghan Government fall so quickly?

The USA led Afghan government had no hope.

Ashraf Ghani running away with $167 Million was just a manifestation of what Afghanistan’s managed government had been doing all along.

The final nail in Afghanistan’s western-backed government was making it anti-Pakistan and tacitly supporting terror attacks inside Pakistan– an absolute red line.

Well, they got what was coming.

The USA lead the Western world has suffered irreparably

A dishonorable Afghanistan exit has revealed the limits of Western dominance of the world for two centuries.

It will all be a steady downslide from hereon in.

Two thousand five hundred one coalition casualties, not including 3500 contractors, since 2001, $2.26 trillion spent and everyone including the Wests favorite pet project India get kicked out virtually overnight.

Earlier, the USA had done a huge disserve to itself by backing India in Kashmir and globally all along.

This might have been the last straw that broke the camel’s back.

Why should Pakistan Celebrate Taliban Takeover of Panjshir Valley?

So, there is a huge reason for Pakistanis to celebrate after being

• Dismembered
• bullied,
• humiliated,
• isolated,
• cornered,
• economically strangulated and
• Killed in over 20 years of USA’s occupation with their toadies.

Now Kashmir looks even more likely to be handed over to Pakistan since the USA was the only one saving it for India.

Great Job Boys!

Now comes the difficult part –how to maintain peace.

How Peace in Afghanistan will come about?

Peace in Afghanistan, absolutely essential for Pakistan will come from

• Zero tolerance to terror from Afghanistan against any country, especially Russia and Iran
• Rule of Law
• Constitutional Democracy
• A dominion with Pakistan, sharing Defense and Foreign affairs only.
• Trade and business linkages
• Institutional linkages
• Devolution of Power inside Pakistan and Afghanistan both
• Heaving investment in education and health in both countries.

If the experiment in Afghanistan is successful, Kashmir will be a cakewalk for Pakistan.

India is already spooked because they know the inevitable is coming/

Now the countries that need to be convinced on Kashmir are Russia and China.

In any case, Muslim majority Kashmir should be with Pakistan, like all other regions that were distributed in 1947.

One more strategic blunder from Modi and the way his government ministers were falling over each signing one strategic pact after another with the USA, and Kashmir will become a Pakistani entity

So, the strategic patience punch clock starts inside Pakistan now.

Conclusion

Pakistan should use this pause to build wealth, hone modern fighting skills and reach, build a capable workforce and devolve political power to the lowest strata of society.

Kashmir Paindabad, Pakistan Zindabad!